Utility Tuesday: 60% Revenue Growth on Natural Gas, 21% Drawdowns, and Insider Adds in August

This Week's Setup

Fear & Greed at 59 sits in greed territory, but exploration and production companies with 10% free cash flow yields and sub-5× EV/EBITDA ratios trade like the commodity recovery stalled in 2024.

The S&P 500 CAPE at 38.9 keeps the broad market priced for late-cycle perfection while natural gas producers post 60% revenue growth and 8% ROIC with interest coverage above 7×.

CNX and EQT show double-digit FCF yields, 16–21% drawdowns, and insider activity across three officers in August; the setup here is mean reversion on constrained supply against data center demand.

Quick Scan

The 8 Names

1. CNX Resources Corporation (CNX)

EV/EBITDA: 3.33 | Interest coverage: 5.71× | 52w drawdown: -16.0%

The 4.9× P/E and 10% FCF yield put CNX at the cheapest EV/EBITDA multiple in the screen, with 49% revenue growth year-over-year and a 47% gross margin that signals pricing power on Appalachian gas. The 16% drawdown from the 52-week high opens a 20.5% earnings yield setup when the normalized P/E over ten years sits at 15.8.

Three officers filed Form 4 activity in August: Navneet Behl and Alan Shepard on August 17, Ian McGuire on August 6; the six-month insider data is incomplete, but recent executive transactions cluster during a quarter that saw natural gas prices firm on data center buildout announcements.

Net debt-to-EBITDA of 1.16 and 10% short interest leave no room for a commodity reversal; if natural gas prices roll over before winter inventory draws, the multiple compresses fast.

2. EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)

EV/EBITDA: 6.14 | Interest coverage: 28.07× | 52w drawdown: 0.0%

The 15% ROIC and 63% gross margin make EOG the efficiency leader in the screen, with a balance sheet that carries 0.35× net debt-to-EBITDA and interest coverage north of 28. The stock trades three basis points from its 52-week high; the 6.7% earnings yield against a flat ten-year normalized P/E of 2.0 shows the market pricing terminal value into current EBITDA.

Revenue contracted 3.4% year-over-year, and the FCF yield of 4.3% trails CNX and EQT by half; the premium multiple here assumes production growth resumes in 2027, but the trend sits at 0.14 basis points per day with no catalyst in sight.

Christopher Gaut, Charles Crisp, and Janet Clark all sold in early August; 100% of six-month insider transactions were sells totaling 14,343 net shares, a signal the C-suite sees fair value at $152.

3. EQT Corporation (EQT)

EV/EBITDA: 5.73 | Interest coverage: 7.79× | 52w drawdown: -20.8%

The 60% revenue growth and 8.4% FCF yield at a 21% drawdown create the widest gap between production momentum and stock price in the screen; the 10.3× P/E compares to a ten-year normalized earnings yield of 5.1%, flagging persistent undervaluation if the commodity holds.

Toby Rice filed on August 18, Jeremy Knop and Sarah Fenton on July 28; the timing aligns with EQT's announcement of a ten-year gas supply agreement for data center load, a structural demand shift that the 29.5% analyst upside target begins to price.

The 9.2% ROIC lags every name above it on the screen, and net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.74 limits buyback capacity; if the data center buildout stalls or LNG export permits get delayed, the 3.4% short interest has room to press.

4. Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

EV/EBITDA: 5.31 | Interest coverage: 7.97× | 52w drawdown: -7.5%

The 14% ROIC and 5% FCF yield at a 7.5% drawdown put Devon in a moderate entry zone with 26% upside to the $61.44 analyst target; the 7.4% earnings yield compares to a ten-year normalized yield of 2.7%, showing the market still pricing Devon as a volatility trade rather than a compounder.

Robert Ferrall Lowe III sold shares on August 4; six-month insider data shows 100% sells totaling 112,371 net shares, a headwind when the stock trends 15 basis points per day but revenue growth of 7.8% suggests the operational story outpaces the insider signal.

The 26% gross margin is the lowest in the screen, flagging margin pressure from higher lifting costs or hedging losses; if WTI crude slips below $70, the FCF yield compresses and the dividend cover weakens.

5. ConocoPhillips (COP)

EV/EBITDA: 6.76 | Interest coverage: 11.26× | 52w drawdown: -0.8%

The 13% ROIC and 4.4% FCF yield at 25 basis points from the 52-week high make COP the safest balance sheet in the screen, with net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.73 and a 25% gross margin that reflects global diversification across LNG, Permian, and Alaska.

Silvina Vatnick filed twice in late July, Ricardo Jaramillo Mejia on August 24; the insider transactions sit in a quarter where COP announced expanded LNG offtake agreements and Willow project approvals in Alaska, both multi-year tailwinds the 5.9% upside target underprices.

The 4.4% earnings yield against a negative ten-year normalized yield of -0.3% flags cyclical peak earnings priced into the 22.9× P/E; if commodity prices normalize, the multiple compresses fast and the 2.5% dividend yield offers no cushion.