UtilityAugust 4, 2026

Utility Tuesday: Insider Buys at 22% Drawdowns While the S&P Trades 39× CAPE

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This Week's Setup

Fear & Greed at 56 signals mild greed, but the energy patch is pricing in a world where natural gas is a luxury and oil services are dead money. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 CAPE sits at 38.9, a valuation level that historically precedes multi-year yield spread compression, yet the energy complex trades at mid-teens multiples with FCF yields that dwarf the index.

EQT sits 22% below its 52-week high with 60% revenue growth and an 8.5% FCF yield while Curtis Barry, Martha Willis, and Jeffrey Kiesel filed insider buys on July 22. EOG holds a 6.1× EV/EBITDA with 28× interest coverage and a 4.4% FCF yield while trading near its high.

The VIX at 15.6 tells you the market sees no volatility, yet the energy names here are priced like the transition never happened.

Quick Scan

#	Ticker	One-line thesis
1	EQT	60% revenue growth, 22% drawdown, insider buys in July
2	EOG	6.1× EV/EBITDA, 4.4% FCF yield, near 52-week high
3	COP	13% drawdown, insider activity, 20% analyst upside
4	VLO	18% above 52-week high, 5.4% FCF yield, refiners rallying
5	MPLX	7.4% dividend, 6.9% FCF yield, 2% from high
6	CVX	9% drawdown, 3.7% dividend, 11% analyst upside
7	BKR	14% drawdown, oil services dip, 19% upside
8	XOM	12% drawdown, 2.7% dividend, 10% upside

The 8 Names

1. EQT Corporation (EQT)

EV/EBITDA: 5.7 | Interest coverage: 7.8× | 52w drawdown: -22%

EQT trades at 10.1× earnings with an 8.5% FCF yield and 60% year-over-year revenue growth, a combination that places it in the top two natural gas producers by valuation efficiency. The 9.9% earnings yield against a normalized 10-year earnings yield of 5.2% signals the market is pricing in a collapse that the fundamentals do not support.

Curtis Barry, Martha Willis, and Jeffrey Kiesel filed Form 4 insider buys on July 22, adding to positions while the stock sits 22% below its 52-week high. Analysts see 31.5% upside to their $70.04 target.

The 0.74 net debt-to-EBITDA is the highest on this list, and interest coverage at 7.8× leaves less cushion than the other energy names here if natural gas prices roll over.

2. EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)

EV/EBITDA: 6.1 | Interest coverage: 28.1× | 52w drawdown: -4%

EOG sits 4% below its 52-week high with a 6.1× EV/EBITDA, a 4.4% FCF yield, and 28× interest coverage, the cleanest balance sheet in this group. The 15.2% ROIC and 63% gross margin place it in the top tier of oil independents on operational efficiency.

Revenue declined 3.4% year-over-year, and the 2.8% dividend yield lags the utility sector average, which matters if you are looking for income rather than capital appreciation. The stock is near its high, so the entry here is not a drawdown play.

Earnings drop August 4 with estimates at $4.97 per share on $7.7 billion in revenue. Analysts project 9.4% upside to $160.25, and short interest at 3.4% of float signals no consensus bet against the setup.

3. ConocoPhillips (COP)

EV/EBITDA: 6.8 | Interest coverage: 11.3× | 52w drawdown: -13%

ConocoPhillips trades 13% below its 52-week high at 20× earnings with a 5% FCF yield and 13.5% ROIC, a valuation that is tighter than EQT or EOG but still cheap relative to the S&P 500 CAPE at 38.9. The 2.8% dividend yield and $142.77 analyst target imply 20% upside from here.

Silvina Vatnick filed three Form 4 transactions in July, the most recent on July 27, adding shares while the stock sits in a moderate dip. Earnings hit August 6 with estimates at $2.89 per share on $19.8 billion in revenue.

Revenue growth at 7.7% is the slowest among the top three names here, and the 10-year normalized earnings yield at 0.3% suggests the company has spent most of the past decade in valuation expansion rather than earnings compounding.

4. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

EV/EBITDA: 9.1 | Interest coverage: 6.4× | 52w drawdown: +18%

Valero trades 18% above its 52-week high with a 5.4% FCF yield and 9.5% ROIC, the only name on this list sitting in new-high territory. The refining and renewable diesel business is capturing margin expansion that the upstream names are not, and the stock is priced like the market believes the rally has room to run.

Analysts see 16.7% downside to their $259.47 target, a rare sell-side bearish call on a name that is already 18% above its recent peak. Revenue fell 5.5% year-over-year, and the 1.5% dividend yield is the lowest in this group, so the setup here is growth-dependent rather than income-driven.

The 22.8× P/E and 3.9× price-to-book are the richest multiples on this screen, and interest coverage at 6.4× is the second-weakest after EQT. If refining margins compress, the valuation has no floor.

5. MPLX LP (MPLX)

EV/EBITDA: 13.5 | Interest coverage: 5.8× | 52w drawdown: -2%

MPLX trades 2% below its 52-week high with a 7.4% dividend yield and 6.9% FCF yield, the highest income profile on this screen. The 19.2% ROIC and 4.2× price-to-book signal the market is paying for a cash-generating machine that compounds at a rate the rest of the midstream sector does not.

The 4.1 net debt-to-EBITDA is the highest leverage ratio here by a wide margin, and interest coverage at 5.8× leaves the least cushion if EBITDA rolls over. The partnership structure means tax treatment is not the same as a C-corp, so the yield is not directly comparable to the other dividends on this list.

Earnings hit August 4 with estimates at $1.06 per share on $3.1 billion in revenue. Q2 results showed earnings and revenue gains, and analysts see 3.7% upside to $60.71, a modest target that suggests the Street views this as a hold rather than a buy.

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6. Chevron Corporation (CVX)

EV/EBITDA: 10.9 | Interest coverage: 17.2× | 52w drawdown: -9%

Chevron sits 9% below its 52-week high with a 3.7% dividend yield and 4.3% FCF yield, a safer entry than EOG or MPLX for investors who want the mega-cap stability without giving up yield. The 17.2× interest coverage is second only to EOG, and the 7.3% ROIC is the lowest here but still positive in a sector where capital discipline matters.

Revenue fell 4.6% year-over-year, and the 10-year normalized earnings yield at -1.7% signals the company has destroyed value over the past decade when measured against its current price. The 33.9× P/E is the richest on this screen, and analysts see only 11% upside to $216.09.

Insider activity shows 823,607 net shares sold in the past six months with zero buys, a signal that the people closest to the business are not adding at this price. News flow highlights Middle East tensions and political pressure to cut gas prices, a macro risk that matters more for Chevron than the independents.

7. Baker Hughes Company (BKR)

EV/EBITDA: 13.0 | Interest coverage: 14.0× | 52w drawdown: -14%

Baker Hughes trades 14% below its 52-week high with a 4.2% FCF yield and 12.8% ROIC, positioning it as the oil services play in a group dominated by upstream and midstream names. The 19.3× P/E and 0.05 net debt-to-EBITDA place it among the cleanest balance sheets here.

Revenue declined 0.3% year-over-year, and the 1.5% dividend yield is the second-lowest on this list, so the thesis here is operational leverage to rig count expansion rather than income. The Q2 earnings call highlighted analyst questions around rig count sensitivity, and the stock is priced like the market expects flat activity for the next year.

Short interest at 2.3% of float is unremarkable, and analysts see 18.6% upside to $71.52, a target that implies the dip is not a value trap but also not a screaming buy. The drawdown zone is moderate, not extreme, so the setup here is patience rather than urgency.

8. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

EV/EBITDA: 11.9 | Interest coverage: 69.4× | 52w drawdown: -12%

Exxon trades 12% below its 52-week high with a 2.7% dividend yield and 3.7% FCF yield, the safest mega-cap option here by interest coverage and balance sheet strength. The 69.4× interest coverage is the highest in the group, and the 11.1% ROIC is middle-of-the-pack but delivered on a $155 billion market cap.

Revenue fell 4.5% year-over-year, and the 10-year normalized earnings yield at -0.9% suggests the past decade was spent on capital allocation mistakes rather than shareholder value creation. The 26.1× P/E is the second-richest multiple here after Valero, and the stock is priced like a bond surrogate rather than a growth name.

Insider activity shows 11,460 net shares sold in the past six months with zero buys, and news flow highlights political pressure from the Trump administration to cut gas prices alongside Middle East war profit headlines. Analysts see 9.6% upside to $169.91, a modest target that places Exxon in the bottom half of this list by return potential.

What to Watch

August 4: EOG and MPLX earnings, both with estimates that suggest flat to modest growth; any revenue surprise will reset the yield spread math for the energy patch.
August 6: ConocoPhillips earnings with $2.89 per share estimates; the Silvina Vatnick insider adds in July make this one worth tracking for post-earnings price action.
Mid-August: EQT trades at 10× earnings with three insider buys in late July; if natural gas holds above $3.00/MMBtu, the 31.5% analyst upside target becomes the floor rather than the ceiling.
Refining margin watch: Valero is 18% above its high while analysts see 16.7% downside; the first crack in diesel or gasoline spreads will test whether the Street or the stock is right.

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