Buy the Dip Monday: When the Earnings Yield Hits 17% and Analysts See 778% Upside

This Week's Setup

The value screener is surfacing earnings yields above 16% on companies with double-digit revenue growth and 89% drawdowns from peak, while analyst consensus points to triple-digit upside from current levels.

Fear & Greed at 40 sits in neutral territory, yet the screen is pulling names trading at six-handle P/Es alongside fortress balance sheets and 13% FCF yields.

With S&P 500 CAPE at 38.9, the spread between these deep-value earnings yields and market-level multiples has widened to ranges last seen in sector dislocations, not broad market sell-offs.

Quick Scan

The 8 Names

1. EQT Corporation (EQT)

P/E: 10.08 | Earnings yield: 9.9% | 52w drawdown: -22.1%

Revenue climbed 60% year over year while the company generates an 8.5% FCF yield and trades at a 10 P/E, putting the normalized 10-year P/E at 17.8 against a current earnings yield of 9.9%. EV/EBITDA sits at 5.7x, well below historical sector averages for natural gas producers at scale.

Insider activity picked up across three executives (Willis Martha, Curtis Barry, Jeffrey Kiesel) filing Form 4s on July 22. News flow centers on the Southgate pipeline acceleration and new supply agreements, indicating infrastructure expansion to support higher throughput as demand contracts layer in.

Short interest remains low at 3.4% of float, but the 22% drawdown from peak coincides with volatility in natural gas forward curves. If Henry Hub pricing softens through winter demand season, the thesis narrows quickly despite the FCF cushion.

2. First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

P/E: 13.06 | Earnings yield: 7.7% | 52w drawdown: -35.6%

ROIC stands at 16.7% with a 5.5% FCF yield and 40.6% gross margin, metrics that separate First Solar from thin-film competitors trading at steeper multiples. Revenue grew 24% year over year while debt-to-equity remains negligible at 0.06, leaving the balance sheet positioned for capacity expansion without dilution risk.

Insider activity over the past six months shows 50,930 net shares sold with 100% of transactions on the sell side across three executives (Sweeney, Stebbins, Post) filing in early July. The selling coincides with tariff litigation headlines, which are surfacing in recent news as a valuation reset catalyst.

The 8.5% short interest and analyst target implying 20.5% upside suggest the market is pricing in execution risk tied to tariff outcomes and operations litigation. Earnings on July 30 will clarify margin trajectory and any revision to full-year capacity guidance.

3. KLA Corporation (KLAC)

P/E: 5.98 | Earnings yield: 16.7% | 52w drawdown: -89.8%

The 66.5% ROIC and 13.6% FCF yield sit alongside a 60.9% gross margin, numbers that reflect process control dominance in semiconductor manufacturing. Revenue growth of 23.9% year over year shows the equipment cycle has not stalled, yet the stock trades at a 6 P/E while the normalized 10-year P/E is 101, a dislocation that explains the 778% analyst target upside.

Insider filings show multiple transactions across Higgins and Wilkinson in early July, though the 89.8% drawdown from peak raises the question of whether the market is pricing in a structural shift in capex cycles or a temporary inventory correction. Recent news cites China's DUV breakthrough as a headwind for U.S. chip equipment demand, a risk that would compress the thesis if Beijing accelerates domestic tooling.

Earnings on July 28 will clarify whether process control demand holds through the second half or if the steep drawdown reflects forward order book deterioration. The EV/EBITDA of 43.5x and debt-to-equity of 1.31 add leverage risk if the cycle extends.

4. Newmont Corporation (NEM)

P/E: 12.08 | Earnings yield: 8.3% | 52w drawdown: -30.9%

ROIC of 29.9% and 53.2% gross margin reflect operating leverage in a rising gold price environment, while the 7.3% FCF yield and 1.1% dividend yield add income support. Revenue grew 21.3% year over year, and the analyst target of $142.82 implies 53.3% upside from the current $93.15 price.

Insider Peter Toth filed a Form 4 on July 6, though the six-month insider activity shows 18,394 net shares sold with 100% of transactions on the sell side. The selling pressure aligns with news of analyst price target reductions from Barclays ($124 from $125) and Macquarie ($120 from $121), though both maintain overweight and outperform ratings.

The 30.9% drawdown coincides with gold's consolidation phase after its historic rally, and if spot gold retraces below $2,300 per ounce, Newmont's operating leverage works in reverse. Debt-to-equity remains modest at 0.16, but the normalized 10-year earnings yield of 3.6% suggests the current valuation is near the high end of the cycle range.

5. Versant Media Group, Inc. (VSNT)

P/E: 6.01 | Earnings yield: 16.6% | 52w drawdown: -38.9%

The 36.5% FCF yield and 17% earnings yield put Versant at the top of the value screen, trading at a 6 P/E while the normalized 10-year P/E sits at 3.65. The 4.2% dividend yield adds a 41% payout cover (FCF yield divided by dividend yield), and the price-to-book of 0.51 signals the market is pricing the asset base below replacement cost.

Insider activity over the past six months shows 167,850 net shares bought with 100% of transactions on the buy side, including recent filings from Conway, Campbell, and Eun on June 29. News highlights the Bundesliga broadcast deal with USA Sports and Telemundo, a partnership that expands distribution reach in the U.S. market and adds recurring revenue visibility.

Revenue declined 5.3% year over year, a contraction that tempers the FCF story and raises the question of whether the 36.5% FCF yield is sustainable or reflects a cyclical peak. Earnings on August 6 will clarify full-year guidance and whether the sports rights deals offset the top-line softness.